Forced Marriage: Taliban Abduct Young Girl in Pasaband District, Ghor Province

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8am: Local sources in Ghor have reported a distressing incident involving Taliban fighters forcibly abducting a young girl from her home at gunpoint. Reports suggest that Khairullah Khairkhah, the district governor, Abdul Hamid Khalid, the security commander, Mohammad Moshfeq, the intelligence deputy, and Tawhidi, the intelligence officer of Pasaband district, were involved in the raid on the girl’s residence. This incident resonates with a similar occurrence in December of last year, when Taliban fighters in Takhar abducted a teenage girl, coercing her into marriage with one of their members. Click here to read more (external link).

Ministry of Public Health claims Polio eradication in Afghanistan

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Khaama: With concerns rising over the spread of infectious diseases and viruses in Afghanistan, the Taliban government officials have claimed that they have eradicated polio in the country. Abdul Salam Hanafi, the administrative deputy of the Acting Prime Minister’s office, asserted in a virtual meeting with the head of the World Health Organization that polio has been eradicated in Afghanistan. He made this claim despite several positive cases of polio being recorded in the past year. Click here to read more (external link).

Traffic incidents kill 949 in past 6 months across Afghanistan

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Khaama: The Ministry of Interior of the Taliban administration recently announced in a press conference that in the past six months, 949 people have lost their lives due to traffic accidents across the country. Traffic incidents are considered one of the main causes of death in Afghanistan, with at least one or several incidents being recorded daily in various parts of the country. A multitude of factors exacerbates traffic incidents in Afghanistan. These include the absence of comprehensive traffic laws, widespread reckless driving practices, poorly maintained roads, inadequate signage, and rampant speeding. Together, these elements contribute to a hazardous environment on Afghan roads, leading to frequent and often deadly accidents. Click here to read more (external link).

Qosh Tepa Tournament to be Held in Kandahar: Cricket Board Officials

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Tolo News: Officials at the Afghanistan Cricket Board (ACB) said today (Thursday) in a press conference that the T20 cricket cup named “Qosh Tepa” is scheduled to begin on the 16th of April this year, hosted by Kandahar. This cup is organized to elevate the level of players’ experience and prepare them more extensively for international competitions. Teams such as Spin Ghar, Band-e-Amir, Boost, Amu, and Mes Aynak will compete in this tournament. Click here to read more (external link).

Can Afghan Taliban Fight Pakistani Military?

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By Sarah Zaman
VOA News
March 27, 2024

ISLAMABAD — Two and a half years into their reign, the Afghan Taliban have cemented their ultra-conservative rule across the war-torn country but have yet to turn their fighting force into a traditional military.

VOA spoke to analysts who say the former insurgent force does not need to pattern itself after a standard military to effectively counter a mounting security threat from an Islamic State affiliate and tackle growing tensions with neighboring Pakistan.

According to an annual analysis of global militaries by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, the Afghan Taliban have 150,000 active fighters. Military chief Qari Fasihuddin Fitrat told Reuters last year that the regime plans to increase the force by another 50,000, but he did not specify the time frame for doing so.

Since coming to power, the Taliban’s de facto government has not publicly released a defense budget. To formalize their defense forces, they have created three battalions under Special Forces and eight infantry corps.

The military has a variety of armored vehicles, towed artillery, three light aircraft and 14 helicopters, including U.S.-made Black Hawks that it seized after the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF) fell apart amid the chaotic withdrawal of international forces in 2021.

The Taliban also have a few Russian attack helicopters from ANDSF.

Capability

Although U.S. forces left nearly $7 billion worth of military equipment in Afghanistan, experts assess the Taliban’s ability to operate some of the sophisticated machinery as limited.

“Without maintenance contracts [and] materials from foreign suppliers who originally equipped the ANDSF, though, it is unlikely they can really use a lot of materials at scale,” Asfandyar Mir, a senior expert at the U.S. Institute of Peace, told VOA.

Adam Weinstein, deputy director of the Middle East program at the Quincy Institute, told VOA that the Taliban face challenges in training their forces similar to those the ANDSF faced.

“They are still dealing with a largely uneducated population that has to be taught sometimes basic competencies of soldiering,” said Weinstein, a former U.S. Marine who served in Afghanistan in 2012.

Insurgency mode

Analysts say despite establishing its rule after the end of the 20-year U.S.-led war, the Afghan Taliban are still in insurgency mode.

“It allowed individual units to, sort of at the tactical level, operate in a semiautonomous way,” said Weinstein, adding that the former insurgents still have “cohesion and decent command and control over their fighters.”

“The biggest strength of the Taliban is their popularity,” said Graeme Smith, a senior consultant at the International Crisis Group.

Smith, who worked as a political affairs officer for the United Nations in Afghanistan between 2015 and 2018, said Taliban forces should not be analyzed like a traditional military, as their numbers change based on local needs.

“During the years of U.S. [and] NATO troop presence, unpublished NATO studies concluded that the vast majority of Taliban fought within 1 kilometer of their own homes. That is to say, locals were going out and shooting at NATO troops, and then going home for lunch and having a home-cooked meal, and then going back out again in the afternoon and shooting some more NATO troops,” Smith explained.

The easy availability of fighters and places to hide, Smith said, give Taliban forces a significant advantage.

Security threats

While the Afghan Taliban have effectively crushed armed resistance, Islamic State Khorasan Province, also known as IS-K or ISKP, poses a significant internal security threat.

“It’s an insurgency which is both malignant and persistent, and it poses an ideological challenge to the Taliban,” said Mir.

The Taliban have killed senior IS-K commanders, eliminated the group’s cells and kept them from holding territory inside Afghanistan.

“So, that’s a testament to the competence of the Taliban security forces,” Weinstein said. “They seem to have good intelligence on ISKP leaders and where the ISKP cells are located, and they seem to be effective in keeping them at bay,” he added.

Externally, the Taliban’s Afghanistan faces a threat from Pakistan — the only neighbor Kabul has a border dispute with. Pakistan’s military has conducted strikes twice inside Afghan territory against alleged hideouts since the Taliban returned to power — once in April 2022, and this year on March 18.

Pakistan accuses the Afghan Taliban of giving a haven to anti-Pakistan militants, a charge the de facto rulers reject.

Kabul retaliated to this month’s strike by targeting several Pakistani military posts along the border. In a statement condemning Pakistan’s action, Taliban spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid warned of “very bad consequences, which will be out of Pakistan’s control,” if Pakistan launches more cross-border attacks.

Fighting Pakistan

Experts VOA spoke to agree that the Taliban do not have the firepower to take on one of the world’s largest, nuclear-armed militaries — but say that Kabul can engage in unconventional tactics against Pakistan.

“They can push back by even doing less to rein in the TTP [Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan] or perhaps, giving the TTP carte blanche to engage in even greater attacks [inside Pakistan],” Weinstein said, adding that the Taliban see the TTP as an “insurance policy against the Pakistani state.”

Allowing cross-border terrorism would “certainly raise a lot of international concern,” Mir warned.

As tensions grow between Afghanistan and Pakistan, Smith said Kabul could also scuttle important regional projects. One such project, he said, is the Central Asia-South Asia Electricity Transmission and Trade Project, popularly known as CASA-1000, which will bring electricity from Central Asia via Afghanistan to energy-hungry Pakistan.

The Afghan Taliban could also hinder the land route Pakistan uses for trade with Central Asia, experts say.

A Pakistani Ministry of Commerce delegation met with Afghan counterparts this week in Kabul as bilateral trade drops amid frequent border skirmishes and closures.

Experts agree the chances of the Afghan Taliban getting into a conventional war with a neighbor are slim — but caution the de facto rulers of Afghanistan have a formidable doctrine of asymmetric warfare involving suicide bombers and contingents of locals willing to drop shovels and grab guns when called upon.

Central Asians in Russia Face Backlash After IS-K Terror Attack

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By Navbahor Imamova
VOA News
March 27, 2024

WASHINGTON — Russian media and analysts are reporting a spike in hate crimes and violence against migrants from Central Asia following last week’s terror attack on a Moscow concert hall, which has led to the arrests of seven people of Tajik origin.

Responsibility for the attack, which killed at least 139 people and injured nearly 200, has been claimed by the Islamic State terror group’s Afghan affiliate, known as Islamic State-Khorasan, or IS-K, which includes a number of Central Asians in prominent roles.

“A market owned by Tajiks in Blagoveshchensk, Amur Region, was torched. Unknown persons beat three Tajik migrants in Kaluga,” said Edward Lemon, president of the Oxus Society for Central Asian Affairs in Washington.

“Tajiks have reported being evicted without reason. Screenshots have circulated on social media showing taxi riders on apps like Yandex refusing to ride with Tajik drivers. Law enforcement have launched raids across the country to find and detain illegal immigrants,” Lemon added. “Viral videos are circulating on social media calling for Tajiks to be deported, claiming they are all ‘terrorists’ and calling for the death penalty to be reintroduced.”

Tajiks are not the only victims of the backlash, according to Russian media reports and activists. In Yekaterinburg, security officials have reportedly threatened to fine businesses that refuse to list any Central Asians working for them. Kyrgyzstan has warned its citizens to avoid travel to Russia, while Uzbekistan’s External Labor Migration Agency issued a travel advisory outlining security precautions.

While publicly seeking to lay blame for the attack on Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin has behind the scenes been in talks with his Tajik counterpart, Emomali Rahmon, to discuss ways to strengthen counter-terrorism measures. Lemon said that one possible outcome could be the extradition of some Tajik citizens to Russia.

“From the Tajik side, my sources say that the government is already hoping to link the attacks to the banned Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan in a bid to crack down on its actual and alleged supporters,” Lemon told VOA.

“Rahmon will seek to ensure that we don’t see mass violence against Tajik migrants in Russia or deportations that could destabilize his regime,” he said. “Putin needs to tread a tightrope as the Russian economy needs migrants.”

Other analysts see Central Asian migrants, who already face a difficult life in Russia despite the vital role they play in the economy, as convenient targets for the public’s discontent.

“It seems that in the end, everything will only come down to the persecution of migrant workers,” said analyst and Gazeta.ru columnist Semyon Novoprudsky.

He told VOA this is happening “despite the fact that they are critically important for some sectors of the Russian economy because of a growing shortage of laborers, especially in construction.”

Boris Dolgin, a visiting scholar at Estonia’s Tartu University, agrees. “Instead of truly engaging in terrorism prevention and working in communities where radical ideas can be spread, they chose migrant workers as scapegoats,” he said.

Farhod Abduvalizade, a journalist speaking with VOA from Khujand, Tajikistan, pointed out that “none of the suspects have been proven guilty.” He said many of his compatriots doubt that the real culprits are the battered and bruised men Russian authorities have been parading on TV.

“The public is closely watching how events are unfolding because almost every household in Tajikistan has someone working or studying in Russia,” he said.

Remittances last year accounted for over 48% of Tajikistan’s GDP, with most of it from Russia — $5.7 billion, according to the World Bank. Combined, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan received about $25 billion in remittances from Russia, where statistics show more than 10 million Central Asians present in the country.

Central Asian militants in IS-K

University of Pittsburg professor Jennifer Murtazashvili, who has done extensive research in the region, elaborated on the role of IS-K militants from Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.

“They have used Afghanistan as a playground,” she wrote on X. “During the war against the U.S., the Taliban also benefitted from these militants,” with Tajik and Uzbek fighters participating in attacks against U.S. and allied forces.

“These fighters have also skillfully played the Taliban and IS-K off against each other,” she said, recalling that militants from Tajikistan took over large swathes of northern Afghanistan in 2021, killing members of the Afghan national security forces. Some recent reports indicate that the Taliban still rely on Central Asians to provide security in the north.

In its latest statement, IS-K denounced the Taliban’s engagement with Russia, China, Pakistan and other counties, even the United States. Still struggling for recognition as Afghanistan’s legitimate government, the Taliban claim they are at war with the group.

“Central Asia should be worried,” Murtazashvili told VOA. “The alliance of Central Asian leaders with Moscow makes them look very weak in the eyes of IS-K.”

VOA Russian stringer Victor Vladimirov contributed to this report.

India left reeling by Afghanistan as World Cup hopes begin to fade again

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The Guardian (UK): Perhaps the one positive for India from their shock 2-1 home defeat by Afghanistan in 2026 World Cup qualification is that the team have risen far enough for shock defeats to be a thing. It is not much of a comfort, however, and once solid-looking dreams of reaching the final stages on the road to the World Cup for the first time are starting to hang by delicate threads of Assam silk. Click here to read more (external link).